110802

In interior BC, a massive mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak resulted in widespread tree mortality and extensive logging of beetle-killed trees to recover dead timber and reduce MPB spread [1, 2]. Concurrently, moose populations declined, hypothesized to be related to the drastic landscape changes [3, 4]. Salvage logging creates extensive systems of cut blocks linked by roads, which can be used by predators to increase predation rates [5-7]. However, little is known about the spatial distributions of predators in regions with declining moose. Our objectives are to determine 1) how spatial occurrence of predators is affected by salvage logging, and 2) how predation risk and salvage logging impacts survival of 8-month moose calves. We hypothesize that predators are more likely to occur in habitats that facilitate hunting: habitats with more regenerating cut blocks (8-24 years old), closer to roads and higher plant productivity. Consequently, we expect older calves will have reduced survival when using habitat with increased predation risk (i.e. predator occurrence), denser roads and more regenerating cut blocks. We will test these hypotheses using camera traps and pre-existing older (8 month old) moose calf telemetry data near Kamloops, as part of BC’s province-wide moose research program [4]. We will measure spatial occupancy of predators - grizzly bears, black bears, wolves and cougars - using an array of 50 camera traps (August 2021 – 2023; Figure 1) set in a stratified random design [8-12]. Of these cameras, five will be deployed in protected areas (Figures 2 & 3). We will model predator occupancy against landscape features to predict seasonal predator occupancy probabilities across the study area. Camera traps are a cost-effective, non-invasive, and efficient way to monitor multiple mammals simultaneously. Occupancy modeling is commonly used to predict species’ distributions and infer predation risk to prey [11, 13]. To assess variation in older moose calf survival, we will use movement and survival data (pre-existing dataset) from radio-collared calves (permit: CB17-277227) (see [4, 14, 15]), which are more vulnerable to predation than adults [16]. Cox proportional hazard models - a survival analysis commonly used in ungulate studies [17, 18] - will be used to ask whether the probability of older calf mortality varies with predator occurrence, salvage logging features, and natural landscape features. Our project will provide valuable information on predator distributions, and how predation risk and anthropogenic disturbance impacts older moose calf survival. From our research, we will provide scientifically informed management recommendations for moose, large carnivores, and habitat restoration, to enhance moose numbers. Deployment of cameras in protected areas is vital for understanding whether these areas act as refuges from resource extraction for large mammal species, by providing areas of reduced logging disturbance.